planter

cropping practices - crop forecasting      Crop Forecasting

Table.1 Sample distribution by states

StateArabicaRobustaTotal
Karnataka 530419949
Kerala 20383403
Tamil Nadu11436150
Total6648381502

From each zone and each specified category the required number of sample of estates are drawn randomly. It is ensured that these samples are distributed fairly well across different villages of a zone.

quick facts

 Agronomic Practices

Nursery

Soil & Water Conservation

Shade

 Pests and diseases

Intercropping

planters calendar

  March 2003

cropping practices

  Crop Forecasting

post-harvest

 Quick Facts

 Licenced curing works

Others

 Exporters
Trade Associations

In each of the selected sample estates forecasts are made four times in a season representing pre-blossom or bud wood (February), post-blossom (April-May), post-monsoon (September-October) and final (January-February). Details on yielding area and estimated production are recorded together with other parameters as rainfall, pest and diseases etc. Also, reasons for variations in production between the forecasts, is fully accounted for. Thus the sampled estates are continuously tracked for their production not only within a season but across seasons as well.

In the current estimation the product of group yield (of a particular size category) and number of yielding acres (of that size category in the zone) is derived as a weighted production. This methodology is found to reduce the error level considerably than the un-weighted method of production forecast. Such weighted-production of each size category is then aggregated to arrive at the zonal production. Aggregation is further taken up to the level of "districts" and states.

For the non-traditional areas of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and North Eastern states, the respective zone's official estimates are used.

Technological advancement in photogrammetry offers scope for further refinement of sampling of bushes and analysis of digital data. It is the endeavour of the Board to fine tune the methodology taking advantage of not only the latest developments in this field but also the inputs from the trade and industry.

We welcome all inputs including private estimates of individuals or associations based on some objective criteria so that we may issue fairly accurate estimates that will benefit the coffee industry.

You may please forward your comments and suggestions on this subject along with forecast, if any, to
The Deputy Director (Market Research), Coffee Board
e-mail id: ddmr@coffee.kar.nic.in

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